31.1.10

The Philosophy of Economics Today








As if it were in retreat but wanted to deny it, after the encroachment of Marxism and Freudianism on what it felt was its own hallowed territory, yet embarrassed by its Idealist past and wanting the fruits of the new materialism into the bargain, academia produced Analytic Philosophy to carry its contemporary positivist message. Inward looking navel gazing was the new emperor’s clothes, and a love for looking at the wood rather than the forest. The mechanisms of philosophy were to be examined in their 'purity', in the guise of logic and language, bereft of those awkward problem areas, such as politics and the passions, which hitherto had, on reflection they felt, sullied their most special realm. Here they surely must be on a stronger footing. This territory belonged to them by rights, for centuries it was at the centre of their endeavour. It did not matter that logic and language alone could not furnish meaning or understanding by themselves, in fact this was to be considered an added bonus, and something to be aimed for as a high achievement.

They would partner science’s groom with this suitable bride, able to fulfil all the duties it could possibly require, especially that of denying meaningfulness to anything that might be considered dangerous to the powers that be, while simultaneously allowing any affirmative meaning to accrue to whatever was deemed subservient to the political ideology of the day.

Such a flexible philosophy, such a denegated position, would be perfectly suitable for today’s human subject, the ‘virtualised’ individual, the flexible worker who can have his education downloaded by a mobile phone, who has all the information, the ‘data’ at his fingertips, ready to leap into whatever assignment that calls. And it would also be perfect for the new stock market, for the ever expanding economy, for world of eternal ‘growth’, for the standards of unquestioned confidence in confidence as the root of all goodness, for total moral relativism, for global competition, for the free and flexible market in every sphere of human activity, and for the ‘services based economy’ in a universe that must correspond to computer models. - My god, it a ‘services based philosophy’!

And so it came to pass that positivist Analytic Philosophy triumphed in academia, and this must at all costs keep at bay the inroads of Marx and Freud. It reached its apotheosis recently, when it lurked behind the Neo-Liberal ideology of globalism as, it has to be said, a very grey eminence, shamefaced and unaccountable. The apotheosis of this ideology thus came just before its most severe debunking. Yet still, like the bankers who have not quite run off (though a few have tried) with the money and awarded themselves with even bigger bonuses after being bailed out, there is nobody to admonish the Philosophical scoundrels. They still lurk in back of the stage, not too quietly, but quieter than the bankers, as is their habit.

What are we to think? We are, in a sense, on the outside of this argument looking in. We wonder what the deeper reasons are, why the ‘powers that be’ and the ‘pundits that be’ failed so utterly miserably to see the crisis coming and do anything about it. But just as official philosophy is ‘hands-off’ the realms of Big Meaning, so mainstream politics is ‘hands-off’ the Big Economy. In tandem they represent the wilful abdication of control and which is therefore also an abdication of their responsibility. In all the attempts to officially analyse the failures of the main players in the crisis we thus find the same feeble and impossible to believe excuse: “we didn’t know what was going on”. Lack of understanding is thus now an extolled virtue, meriting giant financial rewards, but such rewards are glossed as if it were a case of mere technical feedback.

The logic of the market can hardly be backed by the actual logic of Analytic Philosophy, especially not now, when we see that the rewards are enormous for failure, and we see the reality of the crisis unfold, and its miseries, unless the logic is only formal and has nothing to do with life, and unless the logic is able to make moral hazard its secret god. And this is indeed the case.

This Philosophy is not, apparently, concerned anymore with life; it is concerned with science. But its science is also not understood as concerned with life, except perhaps externally, as ‘behaviour’. But what science is not concerned with life? In the end this Philosophy undercuts its own base and rationale; it fades away as something irrelevant, as something only determined by this historical period, as a contingent factor of its political expediency, exactly what it supposed it sought to avoid in the first place. It did not want to be a ‘mere ideology’ like it caricatured Marx’s theory, it wanted to be the modest truth, that was all, but now Marx is seen again to be the real provider of this modest truth, we are back at crisis, and the Philosophers are the ideologists again.

Marxism was always at risk of having its philosophical edges muddied by empiricism, or vulgar materialism as Lenin called it. This was not just true in the annals of official Philosophy, where we might expect it, but in areas like art practice too, where ‘realism’, once a progressive movement, degenerated into a kind of aesthetic behaviourism, a voyeuristic fascination with the external. There is a whole industry bent, today, on continuing to muddy the Marxist waters with pseudo versions of Marxism of this nature. The ‘good’ Marx becomes analytic, and we find we are meant to ignore his politics; for he is a ‘scientist’ now. Marx had his rational system and it is not impossible to look at his work from the point of view of its formalism. Indeed, this is a necessity sometimes (Althusser). Analytic Philosophy and Positivism has, however, made this its sole virtue, if they are the official saints of the new religion (as Comte envisaged), these are its catechisms: its logic, its ‘data’, its unflinching obsession with detail, a passionless quest for validity in ‘correct’ language and its essentializing of ‘grammar’ even, contradictorily, against actual linguistic science and Chomsky. So the very point where it apparently tries hardest to grasp science, science ‘in its essence’, is where it most completely loses touch with it. Like its offspring behaviourism, it only reaches a superficial depth in its idea of depth, it deliberately limits itself, or you might say it willingly puts on blinkers for its masters, lest it let slip a few meanings that might have more than a topical value.

All such meanings are meant to be suspect, which leads to today’s quotidian principles of ‘political correctness’, an ideological panacea for all seasons, a super liberal but scathingly dictatorial “thou shalt” completely rigid in its total flexibility in whatever situation the ‘great and good’ find themselves, flexible because it is contentless. It is not that analytic philosophy has not had its political moments. Bertrand Russell for example; and it is not that it does not produce some good work, some knowledge; it would be more surprising if all this energy and expenditure and swallowing up of talent gave birth to nothing.

But, we are entitled to be angry with it, and especially in these days of extremity. Today it sits behind the arguments of bankers, of speculators automatic deals and the ‘solutions’ of IT departments, the rationale of call centres and computer mailshots; it is behind the endless rhetoric of technocratic instrumentalism, the loss of discretion and passion and, in a way, that old fashioned humanism that at least had humanitarianism sitting next to it.

Maybe the latter was just the result of embarrassment, though. Today’s hard nosed, dullard, vacuous attitude, picked up from the right wing capitalists, has lost that. The new figures for the vast gap between rich and poor are almost unbelievable, they are gross, yet there is hardly a bat of an eyelid. What has Philosophy got to say about that? Clearly very little, it is not its territory; of those things it has basically washed its hands.

What, therefore, can the academies offer us about the crisis? - The economic one, the moral one, the political one, the pedagogic one? A deafening silence, that is about all. There are a few glimmers of hope in that there is some small recognition, for example in economics after the dramatic failure to predict the crisis , that all is not working properly. To quote an extract from ‘The Financial Crisis and the Systemic Failure of Academic Economics’ (from ‘Modeling of Financial Markets’ at the 98th Dahlem Workshop, 2008), which is worth a read:

“The global financial crisis has revealed the need to rethink fundamentally how financial systems are regulated. It has also made clear a systemic failure of the economics profession. Over the past three decades, economists have largely developed and come to rely on models that disregard key factors—including heterogeneity of decision rules, revisions of forecasting strategies, and changes in the social context—that drive outcomes in asset and other markets. It is obvious, even to the casual observer that these models fail to account for the actual evolution of the real-world economy. Moreover, the current academic agenda has largely crowded out research on the inherent causes of financial crises. There has also been little exploration of early indicators of system crisis and potential ways to prevent this malady from developing. In fact, if one browses through the academic macroeconomics and finance literature, “systemic crisis” appears like an otherworldly event that is absent from economic models. Most models, by design, offer no immediate handle on how to think about or deal with this recurring phenomenon.2 In our hour of greatest need, societies around the world are left to grope in the dark without a theory. That, to us, is a systemic failure of the economics profession.”

[Source: http://www.debtdeflation.com/blogs/wp-content/uploads/papers/Dahlem_Report_EconCrisis021809.pdf]

You would think from this we were in for some results, a breath of fresh academic air perhaps. Yet this effort unfortunately seems to be doomed before it is even begun because the task is understood already as fundamentally one of a ‘lack of communication’ of the difficulties they face (and have faced) and the limitations of the science, rather than anything inherent to their method; in other words it is seen as essentially a marketing problem! It is not our fault, they want to suggest, it is the media, the press, and so on, they all expect too much from us, they whine like the bankers: “…we may be the gods of today, but this doesn't mean all the problems should be placed at the foot of our doors, we cannot be held responsible”, “It is not the fault of our Economics, it is not the fault of our Philosophy, it is…”, they hurriedly look around for someone on which to pin the blame and see everyone looking back at them, for the moment they are waiting to see if there will be an answer dawning in their consciousness….

Naturally, in this text there is absolutely no mention of Marx. Are we surprised? - Of course not. Even in an essay which wants to address the question why ‘boom and bust’ has not been taken into account in the most up-to-date macroeconomic (etc., etc) economic models, Karl Marx is not mentioned. When you wear your philosophical blinkers so prominently we guess they must be very proud of them, or are they simply too afraid to grasp the nettle, even in amongst all this 'nettle grasping' that is supposed to be going on in the name of ‘getting real’? It would be hilarious if it were not so serious. But it is serious.
Gary Tedman

La crisis y el misterioso caso Bernanke


El mandato de Ben Bernanke en la Reserva Federal concluye el 31 de enero. Obama le ha pedido continuar otros cuatro años al frente del banco central. El Senado debe confirmar el nombramiento y el debate es intenso. Probablemente sea aprobado, pero no se descarta un rechazo.

La polémica arde. Bernanke es herencia de Bush, pero Obama sintió que no tenía opciones y tuvo que adoptarlo como suyo. Hoy los demócratas están asustados por el revés electoral en Massachusetts la semana pasada. Varios senadores republicanos votarán en contra. Quince senadores buscan su relección y todavía están indecisos. El electorado está molesto porque la recuperación todavía no les llega.

La Casa Blanca dice que Bernanke salvó a la economía de Estados Unidos de caer en otra Gran Depresión. Se trata de un especialista reconocido y fue una feliz coincidencia que hubiera estado al frente de la Fed al estallar la crisis en 2008. Gracias a las medidas espectaculares que aplicó, sólo se sufrió una recesión y además la recuperación está en puerta.

Ese cuento es absurdo. Es cierto que mejora la bolsa de valores, pero los indicadores de la economía real no transmiten mensajes de recuperación. El desempleo abierto en Estados Unidos se mantiene en 10 por ciento de la población económicamente activa (PEA). Y si se cuenta a los que se han dado por vencido y desistieron en su búsqueda de trabajo, el desempleo sube a 17 por ciento de la PEA. En diciembre también se desplomaron las ventas al menudeo. Los consumidores siguen reduciendo sus deudas, lo que conducirá a varios años de crecimiento mediocre con alto desempleo. Valiente recuperación.

Hay indicios de que algunas de las medidas espectaculares de Bernanke agravaron la crisis. Por ejemplo, Bernanke ha inflado la hojas de balance de la Fed de manera exponencial. Y en los rescates de bancos y aseguradoras, en los que el Departamento del Tesoro desempeñó un papel poco transparente y usó a la Fed como caja chica, Bernanke sale muy mal parado.

Por si fuera poco, bajo su dirección la Fed incumplió su mandato regulatorio sobre bancos y mercados financieros, promoviendo la especulación entre 2006-2008. Así que la crisis es en buena parte algo de su cosecha. Con razón en 2007 y principios de 2008 hacía declaraciones sobre los mercados bien portados y lo modesto del ajuste en el sector de bienes raíces. Todo eso ayudó a provocar la catástrofe. Sólo que con sus medidas espectaculares, Bernanke se convirtió en el piromaniaco que apaga su propio incendio.

Este funcionario puede arrepentirse de sus declaraciones, pero no se despoja de la teoría económica que le aprisiona. Sigue pensando que los mercados convergen hacia un mítico equilibrio. Ésta es su cárcel intelectual: por eso sus aportaciones sobre metas de inflación se basan en una teoría inconsistente y sus ideas sobre el mercado laboral son absurdas.

A Bernanke se le describe como el experto en la gran depresión de 1929 que salvó al mundo de una crisis parecida en 2009. La realidad es otra. Su análisis sobre las causas de la depresión ignora el problema del endeudamiento excesivo como precursor de la deflación. Ése es un rasgo común entre las crisis de 1929 y 2009. Y el endeudamiento en los últimos 30 años en Estados Unidos proviene de una caída en los salarios reales. Es decir, uno de los motores de la crisis es un problema de distribución del ingreso de proporciones históricas. Ese hecho se le escapa a Bernanke.

Para el ex profesor de Princeton uno de los problemas claves en la crisis de 1929 fue la rigidez en los salarios. Según Bernanke, el desempleo no se podía absorber porque los salarios no se reducían debido a factores como leyes y sindicatos. Eso es absurdo, pero no le impide a este personaje pensar que la flexibilidad de salarios en Estados Unidos es un elemento clave para superar el desempleo, no importa que sea desmentido por los datos arriba mencionados.

Bernanke piensa que cuando el endeudamiento provoca una deflación, la demanda agregada se mantiene estable porque sólo existe una redistribución entre deudores y acreedores. Eso es tener fe en el equilibrio. La realidad es que, por definición, cuando hay un exceso de endeudamiento los mercados no están en equilibrio y cuando los deudores no pueden enfrentar sus deudas, la demanda agregada tiene que derrumbarse. Y si a esto añadimos el apalancamiento ilimitado tolerado por las autoridades y la especulación, se tiene un caldo de cultivo de una gran hecatombe.

Obama está preocupado. Para calmar al electorado anunció recientemente la separación entre bancos de inversión y bancos comerciales, así como límites al tamaño de los grandes bancos. Pero como esas medidas no se traducen en alivio inmediato para la población, el argumento principal de la Casa Blanca sigue siendo el temor: si Bernanke no es ratificado, la recuperación se verá truncada. Puede ser, pero si Bernanke es confirmado, se podrían sentar las bases para una nueva crisis, más profunda y espectacular.

Alejandro Nadal es miembro del Consejo Editorial de SinPermiso.

Greek Bailout News (1)

by Edward Hugh

“British or German taxpayers cannot finance the failures of others,” German Economy Minister Rainer Bruederle said at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, according to the Associated Press. “Solidarity also means everybody adheres to common rules.”

France is not working with Germany or other countries on a support package for Greece which is managing to handle its problems on its own, a French government source said on Thursday. “I am not aware of a support plan. There is not a plan. We’re not discussing one (with Germany or others),” the source told Reuters. “They are managing themselves. They are finding financing support on the market. There is no plan for a support plan. We are not working on one. Le Monde newspaper said earlier that euro zone countries were studying ways of helping Greece resolve its budget problems.”

The above statements have been widely interpreted in the international press as a “no” from Germany and France to any EU bailout of Greece. But is this interpretation justified? Before going further, I think it should be pointed out that the whole argument depends on what you consider a bailout to be. If you take the view that a bailout involves a restructuring of Greek Sovereign Debt, with the EU itself offering to pay a part, then this is clearly not on the cards, at least at this point, and let’s take things a day at a time. But if you consider the “bailout” which is under consideration at the present time to be simply a loan, which in some way shape or form (yet to be determined) would be guaranteed by the EU institutionally, and would thus be available at a cheaper rate of interest than the one the markets are currently charging, then it is hard to see how British or German taxpayers would be having to finance anything, except in the unikely event that Greece were unable to repay (as Moody’s point out, Greece’s problems are longer term, not short term), and remember, even Latvia and Hungary are likely to repay the loans already made to them, and their underlying economic situation (and competitiveness problem) is a lot worse than that of Greece. So basically the German economy minister is making a speech which generates good headlines, and political enthusiasm, but like Jüergen Starks before him, has little real significance in terms of the options which are really on the table.

La lucha obrera se vuelve espectacular



En la foto que aparece a la derecha se ve a obreros de la multinacional estadounidense Alcoa ocupando ayer la pista del aeropuerto de Cagliari (Cerdeña). Varios están encapuchados. Uno amenaza con lanzar una botella con líquido inflamable contra un avión. La multinacional les había hecho saber que en seis meses cerraría las instalaciones de Cerdeña.

En Porto Torres (Cerdeña) cuarenta obreros de la industria química Vinyls se han encadenado a la verja del depósito costero de carburantes de la ENI. Desde el día 7 de enero los obreros ocupan la torre aragonesa delante del puerto de la ciudad sarda.

En Termini Imerese (Sicilia) han bajado del tejado de la fábrica FIAT trece de los trabajadores de la empresa "Delivery email" despedidos tras la decisión de la empresa automovilística de trasladar la subcontrata a Serbia, donde los salarios serán de 300 euros. Ateridos de frío, no han conseguido continuar la protesta hasta el próximo 5 de febrero cuando está prevista una mesa de negociación interinstitucional. Pero han conseguido un expediente de regulación de empleo, y anuncian nuevas formas de lucha. La FIAT ha presentado una denuncia ante la Fiscalía contra dichos obreros.

En Turín unos doce ex expleados de Agile (ex Eutelia) subieron a la la terraza panorámica de la Mole Antoneliana, sede del museo del cine. Llevaban máscaras blancas, descolgaron dos pancartas, mientras abajo otros compañeros suyos distribuían octavillas con el eslogan "Esto no es un película". Los trabajadores dicen estar cansados de esperar que se cumplan las promesas del gobierno. Les habían garantizado desde el gobierno que no les faltarían encargos, pero no cobran desde julio, muchos encargos no se han confirmado. 2000 empleados de la ex Eutelia tendrán que esperar hasta el 17 de febrero para saber si el Tribunal decide si se ha de proceder o no a la administración extraordinaria.

En Roma cesó sólo ayer por la tarde la ocupación de la oficina del presidente de ENAM, ente que se ocupa de la asistencia a los maestros de primaria y guarderías.

Basten estas cinco noticias para contar que se está agudizando desesperadamente la espectacularización de la lucha obrera, fenómeno que en Italia comenzó cuando este verano varios obreros de la empresa INNSE se pasaron ocho días y siete noches en una grúa a 18 metros del suelo. Rasgaron el sopor veraniego con un grito de angustia que perforó las pantallas de los televisores y el cuento del "todo va bien" berlusconiano.

Recuerda el sociólogo del trabajo Luciano Gallino que hay siete millones de obreros en Italia. Siete millones de personas que, en 20 años, han perdido entre ocho y diez puntos en relación al PIB si se compara con las rentas y otros capitales. En silencio, a oscuras, de puntillas, lejos de las cámaras de televisión, miles de millones de euros han ido a parar a otras clases sociales. Y todo porque hubo unos políticos que se convencieron por comodidad de que la clase obrera ya no existía, o que si existía era sólo cadáver, cuando se daba la noticia de una "tragedia", de una muerte "blanca". La política y la información han vuelto invisible la clase obrera. "Lucha", "clase" o "trabajo" son términos que no aparecen en los programas electorales. Apestan a realidad, y la batalla por el consenso se libraba en el terreno de la publicidad, la televisión, el reality. La crisis y la desesperación los devuelven de golpe a la actualidad.

En Italia se ha alcanzado un récord de desempleados: son ya más de dos millones. En España, cuatro. En Europa, veintitrés millones. Veintitrés millones de hombres invisibles que, ante una Política sordomuda, adquieren visibilidad cuando se ponen una máscara o un pasamontañas y salen por televisión. Fueron noticia hace un año los secuestros de directivos de fábricas en Francia (Caterpillar, FNAC, Sony, 3M, Continental). Batalla controvertida, pues los dirigentes no eran los propietarios y esta crisis demuestra eso precisamente: camuflado el Capital en el laberinto legal que él mismo ha tramado, la lucha se vuelve una pelea contra el viento. Fueron noticia también hace un año las huelgas de trabajadores británicos que protestaban por el reclutamiento de empleados foráneos, italianos y españoles entre ellos. Batalla equivocada, pues suponía caer en la guerra de pobres. Guerras de pobres que acaban en pogromos racistas como en Rosarno. Todas estas batallas fueron noticias porque hubo imágenes.

No ha sido noticia la muerte de Fausto F., de 55 años, ex obrero de una empresa de calzados que se había quedado en paro tras ser despedido y se suicidó ayer en Civitanova Marche (Macerata) lanzándose desde una ventana. Tres horas antes de un oficial judicial le había comunicado que debía desalojar la casa en la que vivía por morosidad. No hubo imágenes, y la Política no ve lo que no aparece por televisión.

Manuel Alegre: "Não serei candidato em nome de nenhum partido"





SER POETA É SER MAIS ALTO
Contra a vilanagem e os pachecos de ocasião:[A única coisa que joga a favor... com a atitude de Manuel Alegre é o convencimento de que só muito dificilmente haverá um candidato que possa ganhar a Cavaco Silva e, se é para perder, mais vale que seja Manuel Alegre do que qualquer candidato escolhido pela direcção(do ps)]

30.1.10

JPMorgan vs. Goldman Sachs: Why the Market Was Down 7 Days in a Row

We are witnessing an epic battle between two banking giants, JPMorgan Chase (Paul Volcker) and Goldman Sachs (Rubin/Geithner). The bodies left strewn on the battleground could include your pension fund and 401K.

The late Libertarian economist Murray Rothbard wrote that U.S. politics since 1900, when William Jennings Bryan narrowly lost the presidency, has been a struggle between two competing banking giants, the Morgans and the Rockefellers. The parties would sometimes change hands, but the puppeteers pulling the strings were always one of these two big-money players. No popular third party candidate had a real chance at winning, because the bankers had the exclusive power to create the national money supply and therefore held the winning cards.

In 2000, the Rockefellers and the Morgans joined forces, when JPMorgan and Chase Manhattan merged to become JPMorgan Chase Co. Today the battling banking titans are JPMorgan Chase and Goldman Sachs, an investment bank that gained notoriety for its speculative practices in the 1920s. In 1928, it launched the Goldman Sachs Trading Corp., a closed-end fund similar to a Ponzi scheme. The fund failed in the stock market crash of 1929, marring the firm’s reputation for years afterwards. Former Treasury Secretaries Henry Paulson and Robert Rubin came from Goldman, and current Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner rose through the ranks of government as a Rubin protégé. One commentator called the U.S. Treasury “Goldman Sachs South.”

Goldman’s superpower status comes from something more than just access to the money spigots of the banking system. It actually has the ability to manipulate markets. Formerly just an investment bank, in 2008 Goldman magically transformed into a bank holding company. That gave it access to the Federal Reserve’s lending window; but at the same time it remained an investment bank, aggressively speculating in the markets. The upshot was that it can now borrow massive amounts of money at virtually 0% interest, and it can use this money not only to speculate for its own account but to bend markets to its will.

But Goldman Sachs has been caught in this blatant market manipulation so often that the JPMorgan faction of the banking empire has finally had enough. The voters too have evidently had enough, as demonstrated in the recent upset in Massachusetts that threw the late Senator Ted Kennedy’s Democratic seat to a Republican. That pivotal loss gave Paul Volcker, chairman of President Obama’s newly formed Economic Recovery Advisory Board, an opportunity to step up to the plate with some proposals for serious banking reform. Unlike the string of Treasury Secretaries who came to the government through the revolving door of Goldman Sachs, former Federal Reserve Chairman Volcker came up through Chase Manhattan Bank, where he was vice president before joining the Treasury. On January 27, market commentator Bob Chapman wrote in his weekly investment newsletter The International Forecaster:

A split has occurred between the paper forces of Goldman Sachs and JP Morgan Chase. Mr. Volcker represents Morgan interests. Both sides are Illuminists, but the Morgan side is tired of Goldman’s greed and arrogance. … Not that JP Morgan Chase was blameless, they did their looting and damage to the system as well, but not in the high handed arrogant way the others did. The recall of Volcker is an attempt to reverse the damage as much as possible. That means the influence of Geithner, Summers, Rubin, et al will be put on the back shelf at least for now, as will be the Goldman influence. It will be slowly and subtly phased out. … Washington needs a new face on Wall Street, not that of a criminal syndicate.

Goldman’s crimes, says Chapman, were that it “got caught stealing. First in naked shorts, then front-running the market, both of which they are still doing, as the SEC looks the other way, and then selling MBS-CDOs to their best clients and simultaneously shorting them.”

Volcker’s proposal would rein in these abuses, either by ending the risky “proprietary trading” (trading for their own accounts) engaged in by the too-big-to-fail banks, or by forcing them to downsize by selling off those portions of their businesses engaging in it. Until recently, President Obama has declined to support Volcker’s plan, but on January 21 he finally endorsed it.

The immediate reaction of the market was to drop – and drop, day after day. At least, that appeared to be the reaction of “the market.” Financial analyst Max Keiser suggests a more sinister possibility. Goldman, which has the power to manipulate markets with its high-speed program trades, may be engaging in a Mexican standoff. The veiled threat is, “Back off on the banking reforms, or stand by and watch us continue to crash your markets.” The same manipulations were evident in the bank bailout forced on Congress by Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson in September 2008.

In Keiser’s January 23 broadcast with co-host Stacy Herbert, he explains how Goldman’s manipulations are done. Keiser is a fast talker, so this transcription is not verbatim, but it is close. He says:

High frequency trading accounts for 70% of trading on the New York Stock Exchange. Ordinarily, a buyer and a seller show up on the floor, and a specialist determines the price of a trade that would satisfy buyer and seller, and that’s the market price. If there are too many sellers and not enough buyers, the specialist lowers the price. High frequency trading as conducted by Goldman means that before the specialist buys and sells and makes that market, Goldman will electronically flood the specialist with thousands and thousands of trades to totally disrupt that process and essentially commandeer that process, for the benefit of siphoning off nickels and dimes for themselves. Not only are they siphoning cash from the New York Stock Exchange but they are also manipulating prices. What I see as a possibility is that next week, if the bankers on Wall Street decide they don’t want to be reformed in any way, they simply set the high frequency trading algorithm to sell, creating a huge negative bias for the direction of stocks. And they’ll basically crash the market, and it will be a standoff. The market was down three days in a row, which it hasn’t been since last summer. It’s a game of chicken, till Obama says, ‘Okay, maybe we need to rethink this.’

But the President hasn’t knuckled under yet. In his State of the Union address on January 27, he did not dwell long on the issue of bank reform, but he held to his position. He said:

We can’t allow financial institutions, including those that take your deposits, to take risks that threaten the whole economy. The House has already passed financial reform with many of these changes. And the lobbyists are already trying to kill it. Well, we cannot let them win this fight. And if the bill that ends up on my desk does not meet the test of real reform, I will send it back.

What this “real reform” would look like was left to conjecture, but Bob Chapman fills in some blanks and suggests what might be needed for an effective overhaul:

The attempt will be to bring the financial system back to brass tacks. … That would include little or no MBS and CDOs, the regulation of derivatives and hedge funds and the end of massive market manipulation, both by Treasury, Fed and Wall Street players. Congress has to end the ‘President’s Working Group on Financial Markets,’ or at least limit its use to real emergencies. … The Glass-Steagall Act should be reintroduced into the system and lobbying and campaign contributions should end. … No more politics in lending and banks should be limited to a lending ratio of 10 to 1. … It is bad enough they have the leverage that they have. State banks such as North Dakota’s are a better idea.

On January 28, the predictable reaction of “the market” was to fall for the seventh straight day. The battle of the Titans was on.

Ellen Hodgson Brown

Anti-Economics


Scientific revolutions involve a revision to existing scientific belief or practice –in our own terms, the concept of anti-economics, defiantly address the catastrophic consequences of economic dominant practices concerning the most powerful states and civil agents of the world. Khun claims that normal science can succeed in making progress only if there is a strong commitment by the relevant scientific community to their shared theoretical beliefs, values, instruments and techniques, and even metaphysics. If that happens then anomalies are ignored or explained away if at all possible. That seems not to be the case anymore.

[To be continued]

Austerity Now

A couple months ago, I wrote a post titled "The Coming Liberal Austerity Program." Well, it's not just coming anymore. It's here.

In response to the Republican victory in the special election in Massachusetts and the deficit paranoia that has gripped the right-wing and orthodox economists, President Obama announced that he will pursue a three-year spending freeze in domestic discretionary federal spending, excluding of course "security-related" spending on the military even though it accounts for over 50% of all discretionary spending. We have to "fund the troops," after all. Those of you with long memories may recall that candidate Obama appropriately rejected John McCain's profoundly stupid call for a spending freeze during the 2008 campaign, but then again this administration doesn't seem willing to make good on campaign promises that don't involve placating bankers or dropping more bombs on people in the Middle East.

Joke: Obama as FDR
File under: Cruel Jokes

Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid are also excluded from cuts, but as an anonymous administration official noted, "by helping to create a new atmosphere of fiscal discipline, it can actually also feed into debates over other components of the budget." The long-term implications of this statement are obvious, and disturbing. After cutting education, nutrition, national parks, and God knows what else (but probably not the military), the plan is to move against those nasty "entitlement" programs that the political class and the right hate so much. It took a Democrat to destroy welfare, and it seems as if another Democrat is preparing the groundwork for a final offensive against the New Deal. And to think that just last year, the media had crowned BHO as the new FDR. Psyche!

But most troubling in the shorter term is the possibility that this freeze may also apply to federal aid to state and local governments, which to date has prevented the recession from turning into a full-blown depression. The early reports in the press are not clear on this point (if anyone has some more information on this, please share it). The fiscal assistance that states received from Washington under President Obama's stimulus package is scheduled to end on December 31, 2010. In the absence of further relief, states would be forced to make painful budget cuts that the Center for Budget and Policy Prioritiesestimates "will take nearly a full percentage point off the Gross Domestic Product" and "cost the economy 900,000 jobs" on top of the millions of jobs that have already been lost during the course of the recession. I don't want to see what kind of social catastrophe would result from the implosion of state and local governments across the country. The thought that this could potentially happen, and soon, is chilling.

As Paul Krugman said on his blog, "this looks like pure disaster," not just economically but politically as well. You can bet that Republicans and "moderates" will just keep calling for more cuts, while the Democratic base drifts further into demoralization. I can't see how a move toward austerity will significantly help the Democrats' electoral chances this fall. If anything, it will provide further encouragement to Democratic voters to stay home. Ideologically, it provides validation for the conservative economic paradigm at a time when the last shovelfuls of dirt should be falling on its grave.

So after one year of the Obama administration, the picture is clear. If you are Wall Street, the military, the health insurance or pharmaceutical industries, a conservative Democrat, or even a Republican, the administration will bend over backwards to accommodate you. Everyone else gets a kick in the teeth. One can only hope that at least some of the millions who supported Obama and are becoming disillusioned with his administration will become radicalized in some fashion. If not, this country's politics is likely to become even uglier than it already is.

Chris Maisano

Sube el desempleo en Europa


La situación en algunos países es dramática. En España, dueña de la quinta economía más grande en la UE, el desempleo sigue creciendo y ya alcanza el 19,5 por ciento. En Letonia llega al 22,8 y en Estonia al 15,2 por ciento.

Uno de cada diez trabajadores en la eurozona está desempleado. Las figuras publicadas ayer muestran que el crecimiento de la economía aún no impacta en el mercado laboral. La situación confirma las preocupaciones en Bruselas de que se estaba produciendo un “crecimiento sin empleos”. En el 2009, la economía de la eurozona –formada por los 16 países que comparten el euro–, se achicó un 4,0 por ciento. Muchos esperaban que el fin de la recesión y el crecimiento de 0,7 para este año sirviera para generar nuevos puestos de trabajo. Sin embargo, el desempleo no sólo no retrocede sino que sigue creciendo y ya alcanza a un 10 por ciento de la población activa.

Los economistas de la oficina de Eurostat encargada de dar los datos explican que de la misma forma que un descenso del PBI no impacta inmediatamente en el empleo, lo mismo sucede a la inversa. Explican que el tiempo estimado para que el crecimiento económico se traduzca en creación de empleos es de alrededor de seis meses. Sin embargo, esos mismos economistas no supieron estimar cuándo esperaban que el desempleo en la eurozona comenzará a descender.

La situación en algunos países es dramática. En España, dueña de la quinta economía más grande en la UE, el desempleo sigue creciendo y ya alcanza el 19,5 por ciento. En Letonia llega al 22,8 y en Estonia al 15,2 por ciento. Otros países han sabido soportar los efectos de la crisis económica de mejor manera. Alemania, por ejemplo, pudo sobrellevar su peor recesión económica desde el fin de la Segunda Guerra Mundial –que encogió la economía un 5 por ciento– gracias a una reducción en los horarios de trabajo, la cual evitó despidos masivos. De esa forma el desempleo tan sólo creció de 7,1 a 7,5 por ciento.

Las cifras de desempleo se suman a los problemas de los gobiernos de la eurozona para controlar las cuentas públicas. El Pacto de Estabilidad adoptado en 1997 cuando se introdujo el euro establece que ningún Estado miembro puede tener un déficit fiscal superior al 3 por ciento y una deuda pública mayor al 60 por ciento de su PBI. Pero luego de la crisis económica, 13 de los 16 países de la eurozona no cumplen con las condiciones del pacto, lo cual ha provocado la reacción de funcionarios en Bruselas que presionan para que los Estados recorten gastos.

El director del Banco Central Europeo, el francés Jean-Claude Trichet, sostuvo que el déficit en la eurozona “no era sustentable” y que era necesario cortar el gasto público que había crecido durante la recesión económica para reactivar la economía.

Aunque las medidas de recorte del presupuesto podrían aumentar aún más el desempleo, la lógica de asegurar la estabilidad del euro parece primar en Bruselas. Los países que deberán hacer los mayores sacrificios son Grecia, España, Irlanda y Portugal por los desequilibrios en sus cuentas fiscales.

En los últimos meses, el gobierno griego del socialista Giorgos Papandreu se ha enfrentado a una inmensa presión venida desde Bruselas para que equilibre sus cuentas. Actualmente Grecia tiene un déficit fiscal de 12,7 por ciento y una deuda pública de 113 por ciento del PBI. El sucesivo aumento del riesgo país de Grecia promete desequilibrar las cuentas aún más, ya que Atenas debe pagar mayores intereses a sus acreedores.

En los círculos de Bruselas se teme que la misma desconfianza se extienda a otros países de la eurozona, lo cual podría provocar una reacción en cadena que acabaría con la estabilidad del euro. Por el momento las recetas que vienen de Bruselas y del Banco Central Europeo proponen una reestructura a la FMI: recortes generalizados en gastos públicos y aumento de la recaudación impositiva. Las medidas podrían tener un severo impacto en la ciudadanía europea, ya golpeada por el desempleo.

Nicolás Nagle

Zinn, rebelde que invitaba a hacer historia




A juicio de Noam Chomsky, su colega y amigo rescataba las raíces de las luchas colectivas

El historiador rebelde Howard Zinn, quien falleció ayer a los 87 años, dedicó su vida a narrar, nutrir y provocar los milagros que rescatan a la humanidad del cinismo, la opresión y la injusticia.

Con su libro A People’s History of the United States (publicado por primera vez en 1980, y que cuenta ya con varias ediciones actualizadas), que suma millones de lectores, cambió la narrativa de este país. En lugar de la historia oficial de presidentes y poderosos, Zinn relató otra en que los protagonistas son los sindicalistas radicales, los esclavos en rebelión, los indígenas, las mujeres, los activistas de los derechos civiles y contra las guerras. Con este libro y otros 20, además de cientos de artículos y discursos, Zinn rescata la memoria de las luchas colectivas y sus héroes, derrotando así la política oficial de promover la amnesia nacional.

La obra de Zinn fue inseparable de su manera de vivir, declaró hoy Noam Chomsky, en entrevista con La Jornada. Agregó que su proyecto básico consistía en sacar desde lo profundo a incontables personas desconocidas, cuyas acciones son las raíces de los grandes hechos que se registran en los libros de historia. Su visión era que si uno suprime las raíces, tal como se hace convencionalmente, no sólo fracasa en entender qué ocurrió, sino también anula el poder de las personas, ya que no se les permite alcanzar el entendimiento de que son ellas las que pueden cambiar las cosas.

Chomsky subrayó que ese trabajo está ligado a su propia vida, eso hacía, y recordó la participación directa de Zinn en los movimientos de derechos civiles, antibélicos y laborales. No puedo decir cuántas veces estuvimos juntos en manifestaciones, cuántas veces nos arrestaron a ambos, rememoró su colega y amigo.

Hasta sus últimos días, continuó trabajando, viajando, siempre muy optimista, cuenta Chomsky, y eso a pesar de graves problemas físicos que tuvo al final. Fue encantador. Un ser humano único, no creo que haya muchos como él, concluyó.

Como maestro universitario –primero en Spelman College, en Atlanta, y después en Boston University– e intelectual, Zinn se dedicaba a generar el cuestionamiento del poder. Yo deseaba que mis estudiantes se fueran de mis clases no sólo mejor informados, sino más preparados para abandonar la seguridad del silencio, más preparados para responder en voz alta, para actuar contra la injusticia donde ésta se presentara. Esto, claro, era una receta para atraer problemas, escribió.

Sus alumnos, tanto los que asistieron a sus clases como los que leyeron sus libros o lo escuchaban en conferencias, foros, acciones de protesta y congresos, están por todo el mundo. El deseo de Zinn era que se volvieran parte de la historia de rebeldía contra la injusticia, la guerra y la opresión. Es decir, el historiador rebelde los invitaba a hacer historia.

Entre quienes se cuentan como sus discípulos hay figuras famosas, como la escritora Alice Walker (El color púrpura, alumna de Zinn en Spelman College), quien hoy, en entrevista con el noticiario Democracy Now habló de la enorme vitalidad de su maestro y de su valentía no sólo en las aulas sino en acciones callejeras con sus estudiantes. Además, dijo, mi profesor era una de las personas más graciosas que jamás he conocido, y solía decir las cosas más extraordinarias en los momentos más sorprendentes.

Otros que lo consideran su maestro, y quienes participaron en proyectos con él, incluyen al actor Matt Damon (creció como su vecino), Bruce Springsteen (dicen que su disco Nebraskafue influido por los escritos de Zinn), Tom Morello, el cantautor Steve Earle, y actores como Sean Penn, Danny Glover, Tim Robbins, Morgan Freeman y Marisa Tomei, entre otros. Pero tiene millones de admiradores más que no son famosos, algunos que han descubierto otra historia, contada desde abajo por primera vez, a través de su obra; otros que han aceptado su invitación a la disidencia, la resistencia y la rebeldía. A sus 87 años, Zinn era uno de los pocos intelectuales que gozaban de la confianza y respeto de los jóvenes en este país.

Hijo de trabajadores europeos judíos inmigrantes, Zinn fue criado en colonias proletarias de Brooklyn, y después de casarse vivió en el Lower East Side de Manhattan. Trabajador en el puerto de Nueva York, en los astilleros y como cargador en almacenes, son algunos de los oficios que ejerció mientras estudiaba en las universidades de Nueva York y Columbia (donde recibió su doctorado en historia, con una tesis sobre el político progresista Fiorello LaGuardia).

Se sumó a la guerra contra el fascismo y fue bombardero durante la Segunda Guerra Mundial. Pero al visitar los lugares que atacaron desde los cielos, especialmente después de enterarse de las terroríficas consecuencias de la bomba atómica en Japón, Zinn decidió que toda guerra es injustificable, y por el resto de su vida se dedicó a esta causa. Junto con Chomsky, fue uno de los primeros intelectuales en sumarse al movimiento contra la guerra en Vietnam.

Zinn cuenta que conoció a Chomsky en 1964 cuando ambos viajaron a Missisipi para protestar contra la detención de activistas de derechos civiles, y que después el movimiento antiguerra los acerco más y desde entonces habían sido amigos.

En 1967, el dramaturgo e historiador publicó Vietnam: la lógica del retiro, el primer libro sobre el tema en hacer un llamado a un retiro inmediato e incondicional de tropas. Junto con el famoso sacerdote católico radical Daniel Berrigan, viajaron a Vietnam del Norte en 1968 para recibir a los primeros tres prisioneros de guerra entregados por las fuerzas de liberación. Fue en la casa de Zinn donde Daniel Ellsberg, el funcionario del Departamento de Defensa que se volteó contra la guerra, escondió los que serían llamados los Pentagon Papers antes de ser publicados en los medios de comunicación nacionales, documentos secretos oficiales que demostraban el fracaso de la guerra cuya publicación fue un paso decisivo para marcar el principio del fin de ese conflicto bélico.

En sus últimos años gozó en crear otras maneras de hacer contemporáneas las voces disidentes y rebeldes del pasado a través de películas, obras en vivo y por televisión y el universo cibernético.

Realizó una serie de lecturas en voz alta por el país con reconocidos actores, poetas y músicos. Se tomaban turnos para leer, declamar o cantar selecciones de figuras rebeldes conocidas y desconocidas de la historia de Estados Unidos, todo esto introducido por Zinn. Discursos, cartas, ensayos y canciones de lucha, ira, denuncia y gritos por la justicia y contra las guerras a lo largo de la historia de este país resonaban ahí. Así, convocó a los héroes populares del pasado para guiar, apoyar y alentar a los héroes del presente en el movimiento de resistencia en Estados Unidos.

Un documental que registra este esfuerzo acaba de salir a la venta, The People Speak. La película fue presentada el año pasado en el festival de Sundance, y después en la ciudad de Nueva York, antes de ser trasmitido a escala nacional en diciembre por la televisora History Channel.

En uno de estos encuentros, en Nueva York hace un par de años, Zinn introdujo el espectáculo así: “Éstas son las voces no de la historia oficial, sino de los que han resistido, de los disidentes, gente trabajadora, socialistas, anarquistas, los que se opusieron al establishment en nombre de la paz y la justicia para todos. Ellos son voz de los desafiadores, porque esa es la que necesitamos. Tenemos que alentar a la gente a desafiar este sistema, tenemos que hacer algo, esto es más bien un llamado a la acción.
David Brooks

29.1.10

Howard Zinn


Where the United States has declared an end to military intervention, has eliminated its intelligence agencies, has dismantled its overseas military bases, has reduced its armed forces to a small peace-keeping contingent ready to heed the call of the U.N. General Assembly for emergencies, and where the resultant saving of half a trillion dollars is then added to another half trillion dollars that comes from a wealth tax and a truly progressive income tax, the trillion dollars then to be used in the following ways:

  • To establish a program of Health Security, with free medical care and prescription drugs for every person, citizen or not, with the government footing the bill.

  • To guarantee public employment (on environmental projects, arts projects, etc.) to people unable to get work in the private sector at a fair wage.

  • To guarantee free education up through the university level.

  • To guarantee decent housing—through rent subsidies or low-interest home loans—for any family not able to afford market prices for good housing.

How to achieve this? Organize a new national movement around this agenda, which will then engage in a variety of nonviolent tactics: strikes, boycotts, demonstrations, marches, occupations, to insist that this program be enacted.

Rating, Anjinhos e Diabos


O 5diasnet faz um comentário,com o título,"O MERCADO DOS ANJINHOS"que comentei assim:Num mercado dos diabos "ratings tended to be pro-cyclical, rising in expansions and declining in contractions" os anjinhos vão atrás… O historiador Niall Ferguson conta-nos uma história interessante de como o mercado de títulos, há dois séculos, encorajava os governos a tornarem-se responsáveis e representativos. In the end a “constitutional monarchy was seen in London as a better credit-risk than a neo-absolutist regime...

Ontem houve protestos um pouco por todo o país

Enfermeiros manifestam-se hoje em Lisboa e prometem "radicalizar a luta"

EU LEADERS LET THE CRISIS RULE OUT HELP FOR GREECE



IN THE EUROZONE NOTHING IS BEING DONE TO CORRECT IMBALANCES.


EU LEADERS LET THE CRISIS RULE OUT HELP FOR GREECE

Europe Budgets Face Pressure

The European Club-Our comment on WSJ today


Mr Barroso [probably thinking about Portugal ] said "the best way to help Greece is for Greece to respect its obligations under the stability and growth pact", a reference to the EU's fiscal rules. " And in Mr Zapatero words Spain's prime minister, [with almost twenty per cent unemployment at home] "The euro club is a strong club with strong ties and reciprocal support. Let no one be mistaken about that.

Greece Makes Austerity Vows

Dictateur fasciste est en tête en Italie.

Un des menus les plus importants de l’Appstore, le magasin des applications iPhone, c’est le « Top 25 », qui met en avant les programmes les plus téléchargés du moment dans une zone géographique. En Italie, celle qui truste la première place a de quoi surprendre. IMussolini, qui permet d’écouter, lire et voir des vidéos du dictateur fasciste Benito Mussolini fait un tabac : en pointe des ventes, elle est téléchargée un millier de fois par jour. Lancée le 21 janvier et vendue 0,79 euro, elle a déjà été téléchargée environ 6 500 fois, a expliqué à l’AFP son développeur Luigi Marino.

« Disons que j’aime bien les documentaires », a-t-il expliqué en insistant sur le fait que son application se veut avant tout un outil historique. Télécharger iMussolini « est comme aller dans un magasin et acheter un livre » sur le dictateur, ajoute le développeur qui demande aux utilisateurs de s’abstenir de commentaires reprenant des slogans fascistes comme « dux mea lux »(« le Duce est ma lumière ») ou « Duce, duce, duce ».

M. Marino est réaliste et reconnaît que, parmi ses clients, on doit trouver des« nostalgiques ou des gens qui sont fascinés par la figure historique » de Mussolini, qui dirigea l’Italie de 1922 à 1943. Ce succès a suscité quelques commentaires inquiets dans la presse, mais Apple a contacté M. Marino pour lui préciser qu’ils maintenaient l’application en vente, tout en effaçant les commentaires offensants. Le développeur prépare par ailleurs une nouvelle version avec plus de vidéos, une chronologie de Mussolini et une liste de slogans fascistes qu’il veut rendre compatible avec l’iPad, la toute nouvelle tablette d’Apple annoncée hier en grande pompe par Steve Jobs à San Francisco.

Taliban talks plans gather pace

By Lyse Doucet, BBC News

Whether or not the report of UN talks is true, it's clear that anyone who mediates in this process would want to keep it secret. Taliban leaders who reach out face great danger. They would need to know they would be protected. The reports speak of talks about talks, underlining how this process is still at a very early, very delicate stage.

A number of military and diplomatic sources in Afghanistan say they are hearing reports that some senior Taliban are tired of fighting, and would be interested in a political solution.

But in a situation where intelligence has often proved to be dangerously faulty, it's very hard to get the measure of what the Taliban is thinking and whether indeed this movement is divided and capable of being split from al-Qaeda and more hardline elements as Hamid Karzai and his allies want to believe.

Full story:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/go/em/-/1/hi/world/south_asia/8486435.stm

Dezassete Instantes de Uma Primavera
Iulian Semionov

Nos últimos meses da guerra, um agente de informação soviético, introduzido na macabra e desumana máquina nazi, faz-se colaborador destacado das tropas SS, penetra no segredo das tentativas hitlerianas para criar com americanos e ingleses uma coligação voltada para a continuação da guerra contra a URRS e os povos da Europa.
O agente Maxim Isaiev (Standartenführer SS Von Stierlitz) não usa pastas milagrosas, tiroteios e perseguições fantásticas. È o realismo das situações, a tenacidade, coragem e inteligência do herói que dão ao leitor a emoção que caracteriza este tipo de literatura.

28.1.10

WHO WILL BUILD THE ARK?

Copenhagen’s charades dispel any illusion that world rulers intend to deal with the environmental damage industrialization has caused. Mike Davis argues that green urbanism’s twining of social equality and ecological sustainability could offer an alternative starting-point.

MIKE DAVIS

What follows is rather like the famous courtroom scene in Orson Welles’s The Lady from Shanghai(1947). [1] In that noir allegory of proletarian virtue in the embrace of ruling-class decadence, Welles plays a leftwing sailor named Michael O’Hara who rolls in the hay with femme fatale Rita Hayworth, and then gets framed for murder. Her husband, Arthur Bannister, the most celebrated criminal lawyer in America, played by Everett Sloane, convinces O’Hara to appoint him as his defence, all the better to ensure his rival’s conviction and execution. At the turning point in the trial, decried by the prosecution as ‘yet another of the great Bannister’s famous tricks’, Bannister the attorney calls Bannister the aggrieved husband to the witness stand and interrogates himself in rapid schizoid volleys, to the mirth of the jury. In the spirit of Lady from Shanghai, this essay is organized as a debate with myself, a mental tournament between analytic despair and utopian possibility that is personally, and probably objectively, irresolvable.

In the first section, ‘Pessimism of the Intellect’, I adduce arguments for believing that we have already lost the first, epochal stage of the battle against global warming. The Kyoto Protocol, in the smug but sadly accurate words of one of its chief opponents, has done ‘nothing measurable’ about climate change. Global carbon dioxide emissions rose by the same amount they were supposed to fall because of it. [2] It is highly unlikely that greenhouse gas accumulation can be stabilized this side of the famous ‘red line’ of 450 ppm by 2020. If this is the case, the most heroic efforts of our children’s generation will be unable to forestall a radical reshaping of ecologies, water resources and agricultural systems. In a warmer world, moreover, socio-economic inequality will have a meteorological mandate, and there will be little incentive for the rich northern hemisphere countries, whose carbon emissions have destroyed the climate equilibrium of the Holocene, to share resources for adaptation with those poor subtropical countries most vulnerable to droughts and floods.

The second part of the essay, ‘Optimism of the Imagination’, is my self-rebuttal. I appeal to the paradox that the single most important cause of global warming—the urbanization of humanity—is also potentially the principal solution to the problem of human survival in the later twenty-first century. Left to the dismal politics of the present, of course, cities of poverty will almost certainly become the coffins of hope; but all the more reason that we must start thinking like Noah. Since most of history’s giant trees have already been cut down, a new Ark will have to be constructed out of the materials that a desperate humanity finds at hand in insurgent communities, pirate technologies, bootlegged media, rebel science and forgotten utopias.

I. PESSIMISM OF THE INTELLECT

Our old world, the one that we have inhabited for the last 12,000 years, has ended, even if no newspaper has yet printed its scientific obituary. The verdict is that of the Stratigraphy Commission of the Geological Society of London. Founded in 1807, the Society is the world’s oldest association of earth scientists, and its Stratigraphy Commission acts as a college of cardinals in the adjudication of the geological time-scale. Stratigraphers slice up Earth’s history as preserved in sedimentary strata into a hierarchy of eons, eras, periods and epochs, marked by the ‘golden spikes’ of mass extinctions, speciation events or abrupt changes in atmospheric chemistry. In geology, as in biology and history, periodization is a complex, controversial art; the most bitter feud in nineteenth-century British science—still known as the ‘Great Devonian Controversy’—was fought over competing interpretations of homely Welsh greywackes and English Old Red Sandstone. As a result, Earth science sets extraordinarily rigorous standards for the beatification of any new geological division. Although the idea of an ‘Anthropocene’ epoch—defined by the emergence of urban-industrial society as a geological force—has long circulated in the literature, stratigraphers have never acknowledged its warrant.

At least for the London Society, that position has now been revised. To the question, ‘Are we now living in the Anthropocene?’, the twenty-one members of the Commission have unanimously answered ‘yes’. In a 2008 report they marshalled robust evidence to support the hypothesis that the Holocene epoch—the interglacial span of unusually stable climate that allowed the rapid evolution of agriculture and urban civilization—has ended, and that the Earth has now entered ‘a stratigraphic interval without close parallel’ in the last several million years. [3] In addition to the build-up of greenhouse gases, the stratigraphers cited human landscape transformation, which ‘now exceeds [annual] natural sediment production by an order of magnitude’, the ominous acidification of the oceans, and the relentless destruction of biota.

This new age, they explained, is defined both by the heating trend—whose closest analogue may be the catastrophe known as the Paleocene Eocene Thermal Maximum, 56 million years ago—and by the radical instability expected of future environments. In sombre prose, they warned:

The combination of extinctions, global species migrations and the widespread replacement of natural vegetation with agricultural monocultures is producing a distinctive contemporary biostratigraphic signal. These effects are permanent, as future evolution will take place from surviving (and frequently anthropogenically relocated) stocks. [4]

Evolution itself, in other words, has been forced into a new trajectory.

Spontaneous decarbonization?

The Commission’s recognition of the Anthropocene coincided with growing scientific controversy over the Fourth Assessment Report issued by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. The IPCC, of course, is mandated to assess the possible range of climate change and establish appropriate targets for the mitigation of emissions. The most critical baselines include estimates of ‘climate sensitivity’ to increasing accumulations of greenhouse gas, as well as socio-economic tableaux that configure different futures of energy use and thus of emissions. But an impressive number of senior researchers, including key participants in the IPCC’s own working groups, have recently expressed unease or disagreement with the methodology of the four-volume Fourth Assessment, which they charge is unwarrantedly optimistic in its geophysics and social science.[5]

The most celebrated dissenter is James Hansen from NASA’s Goddard Institute. The Paul Revere of global warming who first warned Congress of the greenhouse peril in a famous 1988 hearing, he returned to Washington with the troubling message that the IPCC, through its failure to parameterize crucial Earth-system feedbacks, has given far too much leeway to further carbon emissions. Instead of the IPCC’s proposed red line of 450 ppm carbon dioxide, his research team found compelling paleoclimatic evidence that the threshold of safety was only 350 ppm or even less. The ‘stunning corollary’ of this recalibration of climate sensitivity, he testified, is that ‘the oft-stated goal of keeping global warming below two degrees Celsius is a recipe for global disaster, not salvation’. [6] Indeed, since the current level is about 385 ppm, we may already be past the notorious ‘tipping point’. Hansen has mobilized a Quixotic army of scientists and environmental activists to save the world via an emergency carbon tax, which would reverse greenhouse concentrations to pre-2000 levels by 2015.

I do not have the scientific qualifactions to express an opinion on the Hansen controversy, or the proper setting on the planetary thermostat. Anyone, however, who is engaged with the social sciences or simply pays regular attention to macro-trends should feel less shy about joining the debate over the other controversial cornerstone of the Fourth Assessment: its socio-economic projections and what we might term their ‘political unconscious’. The current scenarios were adopted by the IPCC in 2000 to model future global emissions based on different ‘storylines’ about population growth as well as technological and economic development. The Panel’s major scenarios—the A1 family, the B2, and so on—are well known to policymakers and greenhouse activists, but few outside the research community have actually read the fine print, particularly the IPCC’s heroic confidence that greater energy efficiency will be an ‘automatic’ by-product of future economic growth. Indeed all the scenarios, even the ‘business as usual’ variants, assume that almost 60 per cent of future carbon reduction will occur independently of explicit greenhouse mitigation measures. [7]

The IPCC, in effect, has bet the ranch, or rather the planet, on a market-driven evolution toward a post-carbon world economy: a transition that requires not only international emissions caps and carbon trading, but also voluntary corporate commitments to technologies that hardly exist even in prototype, such as carbon capture, clean coal, hydrogen and advanced transit systems, and cellulosic biofuels. As critics have long pointed out, in many of its ‘scenarios’ the deployment of non-carbon-emitting energy-supply systems ‘exceeds the size of the global energy system in 1990.’[8]

Kyoto-type accords and carbon markets are designed—almost as analogues to Keynesian ‘pump-priming’—to bridge the shortfall between spontaneous decarbonization and the emissions targets required by each scenario. Although the IPCC never spells it out, its mitigation targets necessarily presume that windfall profits from higher fossil-fuel prices over the next generation will be efficiently recycled into renewable energy technology and not wasted on mile-high skyscrapers, asset bubbles and mega-payouts to shareholders. Overall, the International Energy Agency estimates that it will cost about $45 trillion to halve greenhouse gas output by 2050. [9] But without the large quotient of ‘automatic’ progress in energy efficiency, the bridge will never be built, and IPCC goals will be unachievable; in the worst case—the straightforward extrapolation of current energy use—carbon emissions could easily triple by mid-century.

Critics have cited the dismal carbon record of the last—lost—decade to demonstrate that theIPCC baseline assumptions about markets and technology are little more than leaps of faith. Despite the EU’s much-praised adoption of a cap-and-trade system, European carbon emissions continued to rise, dramatically in some sectors. Likewise there has been scant evidence in recent years of the automatic progress in energy efficiency that is the sine qua non of IPCC scenarios. Much of what the storylines depict as the efficiency of new technology has in fact been the result of the closing down of heavy industries in the United States, Europe and the ex-Soviet bloc. The relocation of energy-intensive production to East Asia burnishes the carbon balance-sheets of some OECD countries but deindustrialization should not be confused with spontaneous decarbonization. Most researchers believe that energy intensity has actually risen since 2000; that is, global carbon dioxide emissions have kept pace with, or even grown marginally faster than, energy use. [10]

Return of King Coal

Moreover the IPCC carbon budget has already been broken. According to the Global Carbon Project, which keeps the accounts, emissions have been rising faster than projected even in theIPCC’s worst-case scenario. From 2000 to 2007, carbon dioxide rose by 3.5 per cent annually, compared with the 2.7 per cent in IPCC projections, or the 0.9 per cent recorded during the 1990s. [11] We are already outside the IPCC envelope, in other words, and coal may be largely to blame for this unforeseen acceleration of greenhouse emissions. Coal production has undergone a dramatic renaissance over the last decade, as nightmares of the 19th century return to haunt the 21st. In China 5 million miners toil under dangerous conditions to extract the dirty mineral that reportedly allows Beijing to open a new coal-fuelled power station each week. Coal consumption is also booming in Europe, where 50 new coal-fuelled plants are scheduled to open over the next few years, [12] and North America, where 200 plants are planned. A giant plant under construction in West Virginia will generate carbon equivalent to the exhaust of one million cars.

In a commanding study of The Future of Coal, MIT engineers concluded that usage would increase under any foreseeable scenario, even in the face of high carbon taxes. Investment inCCS technology—carbon-capture and sequestration—is, moreover, ‘completely inadequate’; even assuming it is actually practical, CCS would not become a utility-scale alternative until 2030 or later. In the United States, ‘green energy’ legislation has only created a ‘perverse incentive’ for utilities to build more coal-fired plants in the ‘expectation that emissions from these plants would potentially be “grandfathered” by the grant of free CO2 allowances as part of future carbon emission regulations.’ [13] Meanwhile a consortium of coal producers, coal-burning utilities and coal-hauling railroads—calling themselves the American Coalition for Clean Coal Electricity—spent $40 million over the 2008 election cycle to ensure that both presidential candidates sang in unison about the virtues of the dirtiest but cheapest fuel.

Largely because of the popularity of coal, a fossil fuel with a proven 200-year supply, the carbon content per unit of energy may actually rise. [14] Before the American economy collapsed, theUS Energy Department was projecting an increase of national energy production by at least 20 per cent over the next generation. Globally the total consumption of fossil fuels is predicted to rise by 55 per cent, with international oil exports doubling in volume. The UN Development Programme, which has made its own study of sustainable energy goals, warns that it will require a 50 per cent cut in greenhouse gas emissions worldwide by 2050, against 1990 levels, to keep humanity outside the red zone of runaway warming. [15] Yet the International Energy Agency predicts that, in all likelihood, such emissions will actually increase over the next half-century by nearly 100 per cent—enough greenhouse gas to propel us past several critical tipping points. TheIEA also projects that renewable energy, apart from hydropower, will provide only 4 per cent of electricity generation in 2030—up from 1 per cent today. [16]

A green recession?

The current world recession—a non-linear event of the kind that IPCC scenarists ignore in their storylines—may provide a temporary respite, particularly if depressed oil prices delay the opening of the Pandora’s box of new mega-carbon reservoirs such as tar sands and oil shales. But the slump is unlikely to slow the destruction of the Amazon rainforest because Brazilian farmers will rationally seek to defend gross incomes by expanding production. And because electricity demand is less elastic than automobile use, the share of coal in carbon emissions will continue to increase. In the United States, in fact, coal production is one of the few civilian industries that is currently hiring rather than laying off workers. More importantly, falling fossil-fuel prices and tight credit markets are eroding entrepreneurial incentives to develop capital-intensive wind and solar alternatives. On Wall Street, eco-energy stocks have slumped faster than the market as a whole and investment capital has virtually disappeared, leaving some of the most celebrated clean-energy start-ups, like Tesla Motors and Clear Skies Solar, in danger of sudden crib death. Tax credits, as advocated by Obama, are unlikely to reverse this green depression. As one venture capital manager told the New York Times, ‘natural gas at $6 makes wind look like a questionable idea and solar power unfathomably expensive’. [17]

Thus the economic crisis provides a compelling pretext for the groom once again to leave the bride at the altar, as major companies default on their public commitments to renewable energy. In the United States, Texas billionaire T. Boone Pickens has downscaled a scheme to build the world’s largest wind farm, while Royal Dutch Shell has dropped its plan to invest in the London Array. Governments and ruling parties have been equally avid to escape their carbon debts. The Canadian Conservative Party, supported by Western oil and coal interests, defeated the Liberals’ ‘Green Shift’ agenda based on a national carbon tax in 2007, just as Washington scrapped its major carbon-capture technology initiative.

On the supposedly greener side of the Atlantic, the Berlusconi regime—which is in the process of converting Italy’s grid from oil to coal—denounced the EU goal of cutting emissions by 20 per cent by 2020 as an ‘unaffordable sacrifice’; while the German government, in the words of the Financial Times, ‘dealt a severe blow to the proposal to force companies to pay for the carbon dioxide they emit’ by backing an almost total exemption for industry. ‘This crisis changes priorities’, explained a sheepish German foreign minister.[18] Pessimism now abounds. Even Yvo de Boer, Director of theUN Framework Convention on Climate Change, concedes that, as long as the economic crisis persists, ‘most sensible governments will be reluctant to impose new costs on [industry] in the form of carbon-emissions caps.’ So even if invisible hands and interventionist leaders can restart the engines of economic growth, they are unlikely to be able to turn down the global thermostat in time to prevent runaway climate change. Nor should we expect that the G7 or the G20 will be eager to clean up the mess they have made. [19]

Ecological inequalities

Climate diplomacy based on the Kyoto–Copenhagen template assumes that, once the major actors have accepted the consensus science in the IPCC reports, they will recognize an overriding common interest in gaining control over the greenhouse effect. But global warming is not H. G. Wells’s War of the Worlds, where invading Martians democratically annihilate humanity without class or ethnic distinction. Climate change, instead, will produce dramatically unequal impacts across regions and social classes, inflicting the greatest damage upon poor countries with the fewest resources for meaningful adaptation. This geographical separation of emission source from environmental consequence undermines pro-active solidarity. As the UN Development Programme has emphasized, global warming is above all a threat to the poor and the unborn, the ‘two constituencies with little or no political voice’. [20] Coordinated global action on their behalf thus presupposes either their revolutionary empowerment—a scenario not considered by theIPCC—or the transmutation of the self-interest of rich countries and classes into an enlightened ‘solidarity’ with little precedent in history.

From a rational-actor perspective, the latter outcome only seems realistic if it can be shown that privileged groups possess no preferential ‘exit’ option, that internationalist public opinion drives policy-making in key countries and that greenhouse gas mitigation can be achieved without major sacrifices in northern hemispheric standards of living—none of which seem likely. Moreover, there is no shortage of eminent apologists, like Yale economists William Nordhaus and Robert Mendelsohn, ready to explain that it makes more sense to defer abatement until poorer countries become richer and thus more capable of bearing the costs themselves. In other words, instead of galvanizing heroic innovation and international cooperation, growing environmental and socio-economic turbulence may simply drive elite publics into more frenzied attempts to wall themselves off from the rest of humanity. Global mitigation, in this unexplored but not improbable scenario, would be tacitly abandoned—as, to some extent, it already has been—in favour of accelerated investment in selective adaptation for Earth’s first-class passengers. The goal would be the creation of green and gated oases of permanent affluence on an otherwise stricken planet.

Of course, there would still be treaties, carbon credits, famine relief, humanitarian acrobatics, and perhaps the full-scale conversion of some European cities and small countries to alternative energy. But worldwide adaptation to climate change, which presupposes trillions of dollars of investment in the urban and rural infrastructures of poor and medium-income countries, as well as the assisted migration of tens of millions of people from Africa and Asia, would necessarily command a revolution of almost mythic magnitude in the redistribution of income and power. Meanwhile we are speeding toward a fateful rendezvous around 2030, or even earlier, when the convergent impacts of climate change, peak oil, peak water, and an additional 1.5 billion people on the planet will produce negative synergies probably beyond our imagination.

The fundamental question is whether rich countries will ever actually mobilize the political will and economic resources to achieve IPCC targets, or help poorer countries adapt to the inevitable, already ‘committed’ quotient of global warming. More vividly: will the electorates of the wealthy nations shed their current bigotry and walled borders to admit refugees from predicted epicentres of drought and desertification—the Maghreb, Mexico, Ethiopia and Pakistan? Will Americans, the most miserly people when measured by per capita foreign aid, be willing to tax themselves to help relocate the millions likely to be flooded out of densely settled mega-delta regions like Bangladesh? And will North American agribusiness, the likely beneficiary of global warming, voluntarily make world food security, not profit-taking in a seller’s market, its highest priority?

Market-oriented optimists, of course, will point to demonstration-scale carbon-offset programmes like the Clean Development Mechanism which, they claim, will ensure green investment in the Third World. But the impact of CDM is thus far negligible; it subsidizes small-scale reforestation and the scrubbing of industrial emissions rather than fundamental investment in domestic and urban use of fossil fuels. Moreover, the standpoint of the developing world is that the North should acknowledge the environmental disaster it has created and take responsibility for cleaning it up. Poor countries rightly rail against the notion that the greatest burden of adjustment to the Anthropocene epoch should fall on those who have contributed least to carbon emissions and drawn the slightest benefits from two centuries of industrial revolution. A recent assessment of the environmental costs of economic globalization since 1961—in deforestation, climate change, overfishing, ozone depletion, mangrove conversion and agricultural expansion—found that the richest countries had generated 42 per cent of environmental degradation across the world, while shouldering only 3 per cent of the resulting costs. [21]

The radicals of the South will rightly point to another debt as well. For thirty years, cities in the developing world have grown at breakneck speed without counterpart public investments in infrastructure, housing or public health. In part this has been the result of foreign debts contracted by dictators, with payments enforced by the IMF, and public spending downsized or redistributed by the World Bank’s ‘structural adjustment’ agreements. This planetary deficit of opportunity and social justice is summarized by the fact that more than one billion people, according to UN Habitat, currently live in slums and that their number is expected to double by 2030. An equal number, or more, forage in the so-called informal sector—a first-world euphemism for mass unemployment. Sheer demographic momentum, meanwhile, will increase the world’s urban population by 3 billion people over the next forty years, 90 per cent of whom will be in poor cities. No one—not the UN, the World Bank, the G20: no one—has a clue how a planet of slums with growing food and energy crises will accommodate their biological survival, much less their aspirations to basic happiness and dignity.

The most sophisticated research to date into the likely impacts of global warming on tropical and semi-tropical agriculture is summarized in William Cline’s country-by-country study, which couples climate projections to crop process and neo-Ricardian farm-output models, allowing for various levels of carbon-dioxide fertilization, to look at possible futures for human nutrition. The view is grim. Even in Cline’s most optimistic simulations, the agricultural systems of Pakistan (minus 20 per cent of current farm output) and Northwestern India (minus 30 per cent) are likely devastated, along with much of the Middle East, the Maghreb, the Sahel belt, parts of Southern Africa, the Caribbean and Mexico. Twenty-nine developing countries, according to Cline, stand to lose 20 per cent or more of their current farm output to global warming, while agriculture in the already rich North is likely to receive, on average, an 8 per cent boost.[22]

This potential loss of agricultural capacity in the developing world is even more ominous in the context of the UN warning that a doubling of food production will be necessary to sustain the earth’s mid-century population. The 2008 food affordability crisis, aggravated by the biofuel boom, is only a modest portent of the chaos that could soon grow from the convergence of resource depletion, intractable inequality and climate change. In face of these dangers, human solidarity itself may fracture like a West Antarctic ice shelf, and shatter into a thousand shards.

2. OPTIMISM OF THE IMAGINATION

Scholarly research has come late in the day to confront the synergistic possibilities of peak population growth, agricultural collapse, abrupt climate change, peak oil and, in some regions, peak water, and the accumulated penalties of urban neglect. If investigations by the German government, Pentagon and CIA into the national-security implications of a multiply determined world crisis in the coming decades have had a Hollywoodish ring, it is hardly surprising. As a recent UN Human Development Report observed: ‘There are no obvious historical analogies for the urgency of the climate change problem.’ [23] While paleoclimatology can help scientists anticipate the non-linear physics of a warming Earth, there is no historical precedent or vantage point for understanding what will happen in the 2050s when a peak species population of 9 to 11 billion struggles to adapt to climate chaos and depleted fossil energy. Almost any scenario, from the collapse of civilization to a new golden age of fusion power, can be projected on the strange screen of our grandchildren’s future.

We can be sure, however, that cities will remain the ground zero of convergence. Although forest clearance and export monocultures have played fundamental roles in the transition to a new geological epoch, the prime mover has been the almost exponential increase in the carbon footprints of urban regions in the northern hemisphere. Heating and cooling the urban built environment alone is responsible for an estimated 35 to 45 per cent of current carbon emissions, while urban industries and transportation contribute another 35 to 40 per cent. In a sense, city life is rapidly destroying the ecological niche—Holocene climate stability—which made its evolution into complexity possible.

Yet there is a striking paradox here. What makes urban areas so environmentally unsustainable are precisely those features, even in the largest megacities, that are most anti-urban or sub-urban. First among these is massive horizontal expansion, which combines the degradation of vital natural services—aquifers, watersheds, truck farms, forests, coastal eco-systems—with the high costs of providing infrastructure to sprawl. The result is grotesquely oversized environmental footprints, with a concomitant growth of traffic and air pollution and, most often, the downstream dumping of waste. Where urban forms are dictated by speculators and developers, bypassing democratic controls over planning and resources, the predictable social outcomes are extreme spatial segregation by income or ethnicity, as well as unsafe environments for children, the elderly and those with special needs; inner-city development is conceived as gentrification through eviction, destroying working-class urban culture in the process. To these we may add the socio-political features of the megapolis under conditions of capitalist globalization: the growth of peripheral slums and informal employment, the privatization of public space, low-intensity warfare between police and subsistence criminals, and bunkering of the wealthy in sterilized historical centres or walled suburbs.

By contrast, those qualities that are most ‘classically’ urban, even on the scale of small cities and towns, combine to generate a more virtuous circle. Where there are well-defined boundaries between city and countryside, urban growth can preserve open space and vital natural systems, while creating environmental economies of scale in transportation and residential construction. Access to city centres from the periphery becomes affordable and traffic can be regulated more effectively. Waste is more easily recycled, not exported downstream. In classic urban visions, public luxury replaces privatized consumption through the socialization of desire and identity within collective urban space. Large domains of public or non-profit housing reproduce ethnic and income heterogeneity at fractal scales throughout the city. Egalitarian public services and cityscapes are designed with children, the elderly and those with special needs in mind. Democratic controls offer powerful capacities for progressive taxation and planning, with high levels of political mobilization and civic participation, the priority of civic memory over proprietary icons and the spatial integration of work, recreation and home life.

The city as its own solution

Such sharp demarcations between ‘good’ and ‘bad’ features of city life are redolent of famous twentieth-century attempts to distil a canonical urbanism or anti-urbanism: Lewis Mumford and Jane Jacobs, Frank Lloyd Wright and Walt Disney, Corbusier and the CIAM manifesto, the ‘New Urbanism’ of Andrés Duany and Peter Calthorpe, and so on. But no one needs urban theorists to have eloquent opinions about the virtues and vices of built environments and the kinds of social interactions they foster or discourage. What often goes unnoticed in such moral inventories, however, is the consistent affinity between social and environmental justice, between the communal ethos and a greener urbanism. Their mutual attraction is magnetic, if not inevitable. The conservation of urban green spaces and waterscapes, for example, serves simultaneously to preserve vital natural elements of the urban metabolism while providing leisure and cultural resources for the popular classes. Reducing suburban gridlock with better planning and more public transit turns traffic sewers back into neighbourhood streets while reducing greenhouse emissions.

There are innumerable examples and they all point toward a single unifying principle: namely, that the cornerstone of the low-carbon city, far more than any particular green design or technology, is the priority given to public affluence over private wealth. As we all know, several additional Earths would be required to allow all of humanity to live in a suburban house with two cars and a lawn, and this obvious constraint is sometimes evoked to justify the impossibility of reconciling finite resources with rising standards of living. Most contemporary cities, in rich countries or poor, repress the potential environmental efficiencies inherent in human-settlement density. The ecological genius of the city remains a vast, largely hidden power. But there is no planetary shortage of ‘carrying capacity’ if we are willing to make democratic public space, rather than modular, private consumption, the engine of sustainable equality. Public affluence—represented by great urban parks, free museums, libraries and infinite possibilities for human interaction—represents an alternative route to a rich standard of life based on Earth-friendly sociality. Although seldom noticed by academic urban theorists, university campuses are often little quasi-socialist paradises around rich public spaces for learning, research, performance and human reproduction.

The utopian ecological critique of the modern city was pioneered by socialists and anarchists, beginning with Guild Socialism’s dream—influenced by the bio-regionalist ideas of Kropotkin, and later Geddes—of garden cities for re-artisanized English workers, and ending with the bombardment of the Karl Marx-Hof, Red Vienna’s great experiment in communal living, during the Austrian Civil War in 1934. In between are the invention of the kibbutz by Russian and Polish socialists, the modernist social housing projects of the Bauhaus, and the extraordinary debate over urbanism conducted in the Soviet Union during the 1920s. This radical urban imagination was a victim of the tragedies of the 1930s and 1940s. Stalinism, on the one hand, veered toward a monumentalism in architecture and art, inhumane in scale and texture, that was little different from the Wagnerian hyperboles of Albert Speer in the Third Reich. Postwar social democracy, on the other hand, abandoned alternative urbanism for a Keynesian mass-housing policy that emphasized economies of scale in high-rise projects on cheap suburban estates, and thereby uprooted traditional working-class urban identities.

Yet the late nineteenth and early twentieth century conversations about the ‘socialist city’ provide invaluable starting points for thinking about the current crisis. Consider, for example, the Constructivists. El Lissitzky, Melnikov, Leonidov, Golosov, the Vesnin brothers and other brilliant socialist designers—constrained as they were by early Soviet urban misery and a drastic shortage of public investment—proposed to relieve congested apartment life with splendidly designed workers’ clubs, people’s theatres and sports complexes. They gave urgent priority to the emancipation of proletarian women through the organization of communal kitchens, day nurseries, public baths and cooperatives of all kinds. Although they envisioned workers’ clubs and social centres, linked to vast Fordist factories and eventual high-rise housing, as the ‘social condensers’ of a new proletarian civilization, they were also elaborating a practical strategy for leveraging poor urban workers’ standard of living in otherwise austere circumstances.

In the context of global environmental emergency, this Constructivist project could be translated into the proposition that the egalitarian aspects of city life consistently provide the best sociological and physical supports for resource conservation and carbon mitigation. Indeed, there is little hope of mitigating greenhouse emissions or adapting human habitats to the Anthropocene unless the movement to control global warming converges with the struggle to raise living standards and abolish world poverty. And in real life, beyond the IPCC’s simplistic scenarios, this means participating in the struggle for democratic control over urban space, capital flows, resource-sheds and large-scale means of production.

The inner crisis in environmental politics today is precisely the lack of bold concepts that address the challenges of poverty, energy, biodiversity and climate change within an integrated vision of human progress. At a micro-level, of course, there have been enormous strides in developing alternative technologies and passive-energy housing, but demonstration projects in wealthy communities and rich countries will not save the world. The more affluent, to be sure, can now choose from an abundance of designs for eco-living, but what is the ultimate goal: to allow well-meaning celebrities to brag about their zero-carbon lifestyles or to bring solar energy, toilets, pediatric clinics and mass transit to poor urban communities?

Beyond the green zone

Tackling the challenge of sustainable urban design for the whole planet, and not just for a few privileged countries or social groups, requires a vast stage for the imagination, such as the arts and sciences inhabited in the May Days of Vkhutemas and the Bauhaus. It presupposes a radical willingness to think beyond the horizon of neo-liberal capitalism toward a global revolution that reintegrates the labour of the informal working classes, as well as the rural poor, in the sustainable reconstruction of their built environments and livelihoods. Of course, this is an utterly unrealistic scenario, but one either embarks on a journey of hope, believing that collaborations between architects, engineers, ecologists and activists can play small, but essential roles in making an alter-monde more possible, or one submits to a future in which designers are just the hireling imagineers of elite, alternative existences. Planetary ‘green zones’ may offer pharaonic opportunities for the monumentalization of individual visions, but the moral questions of architecture and planning can only be resolved in the tenements and sprawl of the ‘red zones’.

From this perspective, only a return to explicitly utopian thinking can clarify the minimal conditions for the preservation of human solidarity in face of convergent planetary crises. I think I understand what the Italian Marxist architects Tafuri and Dal Co meant when they cautioned against ‘a regression to the utopian’; but to raise our imaginations to the challenge of the Anthropocene, we must be able to envision alternative configurations of agents, practices and social relations, and this requires, in turn, that we suspend the politico-economic assumptions that chain us to the present. But utopianism is not necessarily millenarianism, nor is it confined just to the soapbox or pulpit. One of the most encouraging developments in that emergent intellectual space where researchers and activists discuss the impacts of global warming on development has been a new willingness to advocate the Necessary rather than the merely Practical. A growing chorus of expert voices warn that either we fight for ‘impossible’ solutions to the increasingly entangled crises of urban poverty and climate change, or become ourselves complicit in a de facto triage of humanity.

Thus I think we can be cheered by a recent editorial in Nature. Explaining that the ‘challenges of rampant urbanization demand integrated, multidisciplinary approaches and new thinking’, the editors urge the rich countries to finance a zero-carbon revolution in the cities of the developing world. ‘It may seem utopian’, they write,

to promote these innovations in emerging and developing-world megacities, many of whose inhabitants can barely afford a roof over their heads. But those countries have already shown a gift for technological fast-forwarding, for example, by leapfrogging the need for landline infrastructure to embrace mobile phones. And many poorer countries have a rich tradition of adapting buildings to local practices, environments and climates—a home-grown approach to integrated design that has been all but lost in the West. They now have an opportunity to combine these traditional approaches with modern technologies. [24]

Similarly, the UN Human Development Report warns that the ‘future of human solidarity’ depends upon a massive aid programme to help developing countries adapt to climate shocks. The Report calls for removing the ‘obstacles to the rapid disbursement of the low-carbon technologies needed to avoid dangerous climate change’—‘the world’s poor cannot be left to sink or swim with their own resources while rich countries protect their citizens behind climate-defence fortifications.’ ‘Put bluntly’, it continues, ‘the world’s poor and future generations cannot afford the complacency and prevarication that continue to characterize international negotiations on climate change.’ The refusal to act decisively on behalf of all humanity would be ‘a moral failure on a scale unparalleled in history’. [25] If this sounds like a sentimental call to the barricades, an echo from the classrooms, streets and studios of forty years ago, then so be it; because on the basis of the evidence before us, taking a ‘realist’ view of the human prospect, like seeing Medusa’s head, would simply turn us into stone.